84% of young people are delaying major life decisions due to the poor economy

Deflation forces are still there and will continue to build hence why economy has low growth and does not achieve escape velocity.  Something has to give since debt acceleration has slowed.

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/over-50-of-americans-struggle-with-home-affordability-2014-06-03?siteid=yhoof2

 What’s more, at least 15% of American homeowners (or residents of 78 counties across the country) were living in housing markets where the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home requires more than 30% of the monthly median household income — long considered the maximum for rent/mortgage repayments. Housing costs above that threshold are “unaffordable by historic standards,” says Daren Blomquist, vice president at real estate data firm RealtyTrac. In New York county/Manhattan, mortgage payments represent 77% of the median income and in San Francisco County represents 70%.

Although mortgage rates are still quite low, down payments, poor credit and tighter lending standards remain three of the biggest hurdles for buying a home, especially among young people, Blomquist says. “The slow jobs recovery for young adults has made it harder for them to save and to get a mortgage.” Some 84% of young people are delaying major life decisions due to the poor economy, according to a 2013 survey by Generation Opportunity, a nonprofit think tank based in Arlington, Va.

Some people also appear to be cooling on one facet of the American dream. About 43% of respondents in the “How Housing Matters Survey” say owning a home is no longer “an excellent long-term investment and one of the best ways for people to build wealth and assets,” and over half say buying a home has become less appealing. Although 70% of renters aspire to own a home, some 58% believe that “renters can be just as successful as owners at achieving the American dream.”

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

VIX still falling

VIX still falls

VIX is still falling..there may be a rise after Fed mtg

It’s simply a wait for VIX to rise mid-end of month…perhaps July

CPI day is Jun 17.  If cpi near 2.0 the Fed may make noises and market will start a 1 week correction at that point…

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Inflation Falling and VIX bottoming

Inflation will fall this month from 2.0…last May the change in gas prices was Apr -3.8 to +1.26 in May a positive swing of +5.  This month has fallen from Apr 3.62 to May 0.3 or a negative swing of -3.3.

Inflation Falling May

VIX also falling to bottom of range so swing up/fall in SPY will be large. This is the lowest VIX value in over 14 months.

VIX Swing

 

After VIX rises above 20 for 1-2 days, plan will be to play swing on the (close) after the VIX falls below 20. VIX rises above 20 approx. 3 times per year…

2 VIX 17 and 20

The fall is $9-10 and the rebound is $9 in the next 1-2 weeks. It does a full retracement.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Gas Buddy Resumes Downfall

The bump in gas buddy is over and it continues to fall…

So VIX should start to rise in 1-3 weeks with a low in SPY Jun 18-25. Anticipate buying spy rebound July 3 at close as holiday week trading is slow.  Takoff will occur starting July 7.

 

 

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Gas Buddy Now Falling

With gas buddy now falling, the best buy zone will be a rebound starting 1.5-2mo from now.  With FM on Jun 18, rebound should start Jun 18-25. The VIX and GHA will indicate which day.

As ccpi is nowhere near 2.0, TLT is not a major play. A small rebound may occur at end of this month if gcpi reports 2.0 although I will wait for the SPY rebound starting Jun 18-25. I anticipate no play for TLT this year as ccpi won’t approach 2.0.  When QE is shutoff in October, the market may correct 10% in Nov but Fed will quickly pre-announce/hint a new round of QE.

 

Gas Buddy Falling

Gas Buddy and TLT_SPY

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

VIX between 13 (sell zone) and 17 (buy zone)

Vix below 13 and above 17

It seems VIX runs between 13 and 17.  The sell zone would be below 13 and the buy zone above 17.  The next major rebound will occur after VIX goes above 17 most likely after it falls below 13.

The best rebounds occur after a major ‘storm’ event VIX 17+.  Note the last 3 have different reasons.  The reason really doesn’t matter other than they occur after Fed meetings.

Jun 26 2013:     Taper policy announcement….buy point 7days after FM (FM Jun 19)

Oct 8 2013:      Debt debate/gov’t shutdown…buy at Fed minutes (close) (FM Sep 18)

Feb 6 2014:      Bad economy from winter weather…buy 3 days after PMI (FM Jan 29)

Rebounds

Minor rebounds occur more often again with different reasons:

Sep 6: Taper worries over summer

Dec 18: Fed meeting / taper worries

Mar and Apr: taper worries (FM Mar 18) and Russian crisis (mid-Apr)

These are closeups of the rebounds…

Rebound Closeups

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Looks like Jun 18 rebound more likely

It looks like the next major rebound will start Jun 18/19.  A small TLT rebound may occur at end of May after gcpi 2.0 is reported for April.  The buy signal is the first TLT GHA after cpi is reported May 15.  The sell would be before the end of the month May 30.

Interesting charts below of slowing growth.  This means more and more QE over time to compensate for slowing growth and wages falling as % GDP.

The slowdown

Long-Term Real GDP Growth

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

VIX is now rising…SPY rebound May 2

Vix now rising

 

VIX is now rising so May 2 is a possible SPY buy. Green HA occurs on May 2 with nfp confirmation is the signal. This down event from here until April 30 is due to tapering. ROC- is still on as well.

 

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Low Inflation Chart

The St Louis Fed monthly gas change (% change from last year) clearly shows inflation muted and hence why stocks have gone so high and no TLT runs in 2012/2013 (2010 and 2011 had great TLT runs).

YoY Mo Gas Change

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Negative Liberty and Positive Liberty

Negative liberty is the freedom ‘from’ and positive liberty is freedom ‘to’. Relevant to this is the following excerpt.

From the book ‘Myths of Happiness’ :

‘ Because diminishing negative experiences (like the worry associated with debt) brings a three-to fivefold greater return on happiness than creating positive experiences (like buying a new television),

the wise course of action – and step one to embark on any strategy to enjoy living…is to reduce or eliminate debt before committing our money to any nonessential services or goods.’

 

 

 

 

 

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment