Looks like tomorrow at open is a buy as today qualified as a $1 Green candle.
The OEX is now 67 jumping 12 from the bottom at 55. The OEX rebound with a $1 green candle qualifies as a turn.
The VIX has fallen below the 12dma as well.
Also ROC -4 has been a bottom area last year and it is $4 off the bottom.
The uptrend lasts 9-14 trading days.
These are the last times it hit the 200dma and their 1 day HA candle charts. The best plan would be to buy at the open of the 1st green candle for example, by at open June 6 or Nov 19 and gets you within $1 of bottom. Or wait for the 2nd green day buying at the open losing perhaps $1 more but with certainty.
New link to follow…sell all SPY BUT there will be a time to buy again
Feb 19-21
Link is here..
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p60228447328
This is the 12 day moving average of the VIX. When it levels off and the 1st green, 1 day , HA candle occurs that’s the buy. The inflection for the VIX was Jan 23. It takes about 1 month or Feb 19-21 for the level and uptrend to return….
I find that the 2h candles are useful on the buy side for SPY. But on the sell side the 1 day candles are better.
June….19 days green (-3 BBd event, ROC -4) $12 run
Sep…13d (-3BBd event, ROC -4) $9 run
Oct…15d (ROC -1) $12 run
Dec…9d (ROC -1) $7 run
Jan…. (-3BBd event, ROC -3) $7-$9 run? 185-187
So 9 days green would bring it to Tues., Feb. 11 or 2 weeks from Fed meeting. A $7 run would bring it to 185. Although the topBBd is 186.80 which is also possible. After crossing the midBBd, it peaks 7-8 trading days after.
Obviously 1st green HA is best. This should occur Monday/Tuesday. Rally starts Wednesday after Fed meeting and ‘relief’ rally. This will peak around Feb 6.
3 criteria for SPY:
1) gcpi < 2.0 (next buy date Apr 14)
2) ROC –
3) Buy on 1st green HA, sell on 2nd red HA
TLT
1) gcpi 2.0 (may occur Mar 18)
2) sell on OEX X 10wkma on upside
SPY has fallen through BBd and ROC is -1% so I say go! Bought at 0945 est
Rebound will occur rapidly after Fed Meeting. If at top of BBd on Friday Jan 31 sell all otherwise sell 50% and rest on Feb 6…
The OEXd has fallen 7 points to 81 so that’s a buy zone. Also USD falling and gas buddy rising so liquidity being added to system. TLT is not good to buy when oil rising. TLT:$WTIC moving into ‘risk on’ zone.
Tentative Plan…
Today Buy SPY if ROC-
Feb 6 Sell SPY before nfp
Mar 18 Buy TLT cpi day, if gcpi 2.0
Apr 4 Sell TLT nfp, if gas buddy also falling otherwise hold
Apr 14 Buy SPY day before cpi day, if gas buddy falling for past month gcpi lower
also ROC- should occur, other ind. : 1st green HA in ROC- zone, exited bottom of BBd
May 16 Sell SPY after a ++ run
SPY on course for ROC- and can rebound from 181.x to 187-188 starting from a ROC- event tomorrow through Tuesday. I say buy if HA candle shows 1st green tomorrow and ROC -0.4% or lower.
ROC now 0.14% and will cross to – tomorrow and is a buy at that point.
Gas buddy and gas are now rising as usual in the Jan/Feb period. Look at the 2 week St Louis Fed rate of change in gas prices below and the new link added under St Louis Gas Mo change. Gas inflation is in fact higher than it was same time last year.
Gas Buddy also shows signs of leveling and a rise coming. OEXw shows no sign of drop as would be expected if a drop were to occur before Jan 29. So SPY might go up slightly but chance of large rebound is small. A significant drop of ROC-4 is needed before playing a rebound.
A SPY rebound can occur after a ROC- in February. However, it will be small. I anticipate another gcpi 2.0 report in March (Feb cpi). This will cause the Fed to taper on March 19 causing a SPY fall of 5-10%. You could also play TLT for only 2 weeks at end of March if gcpi shows 2.0.
However, April reported gcpi (March gcpi) will show a drop again to 1.5 (gas buddy is an early indicator). This will be the best time to play a SPY rebound on April 15 cpi day (or the first green HA candle after Apr 15) to middle of May. The next Fed meeting in April will a no-taper event and consequently SPY will rebound nicely after correcting mid-Mar to mid-Apr. The best rebounds last year Apr-May and Oct-Nov occurred after gcpi 2.0 events, Feb CPI & July CPI.
Likely taper schedule…Fed Mtgs:
Jan 29 no taper
Mar 19 taper, 2 week TLT run
late Apr, no taper
ROC now 1.53 on way to – by end of week! Another rebound is coming (six rebounds last year).
The ++ refers to the meeting and minutes in May having ROC20 values of +. A ++ indicates a very good run with a ROC- event expected (Jun 2013). A gcpi 2.0 equates to a big drop ROC -4 (Aug 2013) while a lesser value gcpi <2.0, a ROC -1.
VIX is also falling a very good sign! I suspect this year rebounds will occur after Fed meetings. I have revised the ROC- table to reflect actual values/runs…Clearly with gas buddy falling this week, it’s a very good sign! A $6-7 run is expected with a ROC -1 and gas buddy -0.25.
BTW, in case anyone believes in recovery…
Credit Flow Investor 