Even luxury is not immune…hence why celebrities are selling at a discount.
KRE down 4 weeks and ready to drop YoY.
Carmax for low end used car buyers broke through in July…
For Q3, Prices AND Sales were down.
Average new car prices starting down in 2024/2025….
Ratio of TLT to regional banks….
deals Canada..43% off.
12 wk ema has crossed 40 wk ema….
Based on 12wk ema or 0.323 per week, 12wk ema is 91.9 by Dec
or 91.9+2.5=94.5 by week 3 Dec.
Longer-term since last year…
SPY also weakening…weakest in 6 months.
The decline from lei highs has been very long. Oil also falling slowly $10-12 per year.
The bull market in real estate has run from 2012 to 2025 or 13 years and stocks you could argue have been running since 2009 or 16 years.
Normally a bear market is 33 % of the bull. 2008 was one year out of 2003-2007 (5 years) so 20%.
Because of the big stimulus and rise, it will take longer to fall to recession than before.
And 20% of 16 years is 3 years. The first year down will be a ‘low growth’ economy.
HIGH ASSET PRICES have been driving everything which even jp now talks about being too high.
High prices lead to a ‘stall out’ versus a rapid inflation and crash.
Of course, it makes sense that upward pressure has to build before a +10% is possible.
After July drop on this chart, another +10% occurs in August.
Above 0.146-0.147 is official bull….
Home builders take the first hit before SPY.
See Last November and December before big drops in March and April.
LEN down 6% MoM and -11% from peak price beginning of Sep.
As we all know 2022 was bad for stocks…inflation was rising quickly.
AND bad for bonds as rates rose from 0% to 4.x%.
And we now know 2023-2025 has been good for stocks.
Why? Inflation has been falling for the whole period. Even when the Fed was dropping rates in 2024!
BUT now we have falling rates and declining growth with rising inflation
(also GDX +100% YTD indicates future inflation 2026)
which causes SPY hiccups and runs to risk off assets.
AND eventually a nervous breakdown – liquidation/crunches in the risk markets.
‘Stagflation’ as JP has noted.
Note-peak of inflation Jun 2022…stocks bottomed Oct 2022.
Then stocks rallied from Oct 2022-Sep 2025 as inflation fell from 9% to 2.4%.
Service inflation fell from 8% to 3.5%.
BUT now inflation rising the last 4 months and more as rates drop.
Services have stopped falling and started to rise again the last 3mo.
Credit Flow Investor 