For non-leveraged positions, SPY/TLT (0cpn) positions use TLT X 200dma as indicating a policy change:

Apr 2009-Apr 2010 QE-SPY                1y

Apr 2010-Aug 2010 no QE – TLT        4mo (inflation low at ccpi 1.0 so QE expected shortly)

Nov 2010-Apr 2011  QE- SPY               6mo

May 2011- Dec 2012 Twist-TLT           18mo

Jan 2013-Jan 2014   QE – SPY              1y

Jan 2014-Jan 2015   Taper-TLT           1y

(sell signals for 0cpn improved based on Oil X 10wkma and 20% above 200dma

Sell mid-Oct/Nov and at Fed Meetings close in January)