TLT has X the 200dma and returned to bull mode see also TLT:Oil and TLT:SPY X 10wkma.  As it is Aug, TLT is not played until Sep. when vacation ends and volumes return.

TLT should fade in the first 2 weeks of Sep. as it normally does. TLT will then be bought after the Fed meeting with GWm (green williams oscillator).

Strategy over the next 18mo has 4 ‘leveraged’ runs:

1. Buy TLT after Sep FM and GWm, Sell after 3 wks when it exits GWm
2. 2016 Buy TLT after Dec FM (most likely Jan 1,4) with GWm, Sell after 4 wks at Fed Meeting close
3. Buy TLT and short JNK when TLT GWm from Sep 1-on, Sell 1-2wks after Nov election when TLT exits GWm
4. 2017 Wait for new QE commitment (most likely Dec 21). Buy SPY Jan 2 when SPY GWm occurs, Sell at Fed Meeting close Feb 1.

For long term ‘non-leveraged’ positions: Fed ‘mode’ is determined by watching TLT >< 200dma.  As long as TLT < 200dma, hold SPY and collect dividends.  When it shifts above (TLT > 200dma), hold 0 cpn bonds. Sell 0 cpn bonds when oil > 10 wkma (Feb 2015).

The ‘leveraged’ strategy is to play TLT or SPY after vacations, Sep-Oct and Jan, depending on Fed ‘mode’.

Notice each ‘leveraged’ event is after the primary holidays, Aug and Dec. ‘Apr-Aug’ period has lower volumes and makes for ‘noisy’ decisions. Runs are also smaller over the summer for the same reasons. Clear signals occur twice per year, Jan and Sep.

From 2017-2023, ccpi will be range bound 1.0-1.9 with a low growth environment.  Fed will continue with QE (twist unlikely) targeting employment once again until bubbles build too large in 2023.  The bubble will then be burst again as in 2015-2016.