OF COURSE, ONE INDICATOR ALONE NEVER TELLS THE FULL STORY.

You have to understand the WHY. For instance, in Feb it was the war. Now it’s the Fed raising rates. Vix rising for no reason is useless.

AND normally, there are only 1-2 crises per year.

Once you enter the commodity cycle,

Vix and bonds are good trackers…SPY itself a lot less important

because SPY can be at the top but VIX remains stubbornly high (for instance May 2008).

low VIX=low fear.

Once the VIX 12x60dma, the crisis peaks in 2 months so mid-Oct to mid-Dec.