Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

10y TIPS-10y shows inflation pressure… Longer term…

BTC has 2X beta of SPY and has gone sideways since October.

OR 0.3 of last year…so next year +7%. When the stock surges big one year…the increase drops big the next year. Euro starts to move up…weakening US economy. Growth started to falter in 2025….

Bonds sideways since October…due for a turn. S&P up 13.9% vs 28.3% last year (Monthly average)…

Empl to Popn falls again to 59.6…falls 0.8% (peak) of 340M pop or 2.72M jobs lost. AND SPY slowing 50% of last year… 2026 could be as low as 22% of 13.9% or 3%…

For the upper middle and lower… Also P&G

CLEARLY WAGES ARE NOT DRIVING THE ECONOMY! It’s S&P and wealth effect. Wealth effects are coming off for housing as of this year. BUT Inflation is dropping…

Gov’t data starting to catch up…Sep equivalent rent is now reflecting falling rents and house prices…. Also we know Oct rents have fallen further.

They rank sentiment and ISM manufacturing new orders high even though sentiment tells me nothing and manufacturing is now 10% OF ECONOMY. It is not 1955 anymore when new orders for car parts mattered. AND THEY WEIGHT S&P AT ONLY … Continue reading →