Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

The decline from lei highs has been very long. Oil also falling slowly $10-12 per year. The bull market in real estate has run from 2012 to 2025 or 13 years and stocks you could argue have been running since … Continue reading →

Of course, it makes sense that upward pressure has to build before a +10% is possible. After July drop on this chart, another +10% occurs in August.

0.145 by Dec…

Above 0.146-0.147 is official bull….

Home builders take the first hit before SPY. See Last November and December before big drops in March and April. LEN down 6% MoM and -11% from peak price beginning of Sep.

As we all know 2022 was bad for stocks…inflation was rising quickly. AND bad for bonds as rates rose from 0% to 4.x%. And we now know 2023-2025 has been good for stocks. Why? Inflation has been falling for the … Continue reading →

‘Stagflation’ as JP has noted. Note-peak of inflation Jun 2022…stocks bottomed Oct 2022. Then stocks rallied from Oct 2022-Sep 2025 as inflation fell from 9% to 2.4%. Service inflation fell from 8% to 3.5%. BUT now inflation rising the last … Continue reading →

USD weakens again slowly. FXC is a good leading indicator for liquidity and it started drying up in July…

Last inflation was 0.38 (core inflation 0.35). Assuming a mild acceleration and a later deceleration… the YoY below is indicated. As inflation picks up, it will reach 5%+ by next year.