Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Certainly not high inflation…compact cars -5%…

Looks like Fed is becoming worried about this parabolic behavior of tech stocks. Hence, why no drop in Jan…regardless of rising unemployment or lower inflation. Tech and Gold stocks thought rising unemployment was great for them as Fed would drop … Continue reading →

New FR 3.83 so -0.1 is 3.73. Upside almost over but will last 4-5 wks before resuming downtrend. The gap between Fed rate and 1 year Treasury can close to -0.1.

2 year or 100 week moving average… With QE 2021 it rises about 15%…a lot more in 2008.

Costco represents top 50% spending in America as many doctors/medical and lawyers also shop there… Last year in December Costco was up +35% YoY. Of course, economy was booming in Q1 2025! And for most of 2025… OEX loses momentum … Continue reading →

Looks like Fed doesn’t want to spend their “bullets” that fast. Market was wrong…no straight line drops! I suspect that’s why you get a 0% in SPY next year and it makes sense. When economy is weak (compare COST +35% … Continue reading →

GDX showing a rising deflationary force… The best days of gold are behind it…SPY and GLD returns and estimates…

so hiring has slowed way down…and 5 more down years to go…. Honeymoon is over…

Here is what Conterra, an agricultural lender, had to say: “Lenders are reviewing everything from crop budgets to collateral before backing loans. Results from the American Bankers Association’s 2024 Ag Lender Survey show that just 58% of farm borrowers are … Continue reading →