Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Since 1930s, recessions have been inflationary with surges causing a recession. BUT now asset prices are too high so NOW rents and house prices can both go down which was not the case in 2008 recession or others since 1930s. … Continue reading →

4 weeks up for 1 year Treasury. ALSO Q3 SPY +12%. Fed has dropped inflation and unemployment and now is worried about SPY. Return has been too strong. This makes the recession worse than would have been taking longer to … Continue reading →

still above 12 and 40 wkma…both slopes up. Last year same time was a big downward slope. ROC 52 is positive. Push to 92 by 2nd week Dec. TLT to oil bullish since August…

Profit growth….

Guess the guy behind this speech? “Primarily this is because the rulers of the exchange of mankind’s goods have failed, through their own stubbornness and their own incompetence, have admitted their failure, and abdicated. Practices of the unscrupulous money changers … Continue reading →

After 2020-2024 boom, now 2025 down. More concentration of economy at the top….

And weaker yet in 2026 ….0.5% growth. This also says SPY will be 0% next year as growth is dying and Fed drops on pause in Dec.

TLT reflects the Fed pausing in December and having a downward reaction -2.5. BUT is now due to go sideways 90-91 during November. Push to 93 or 93.50 in December. TLT now has an upward slope in Sep and Oct.