Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

1 year shows hiccups …months ahead…

For spy drops, oil weekly is a good leader…

Even luxury is not immune…hence why celebrities are selling at a discount.

KRE down 4 weeks and ready to drop YoY. Carmax for low end used car buyers broke through in July… For Q3, Prices AND Sales were down. Average new car prices starting down in 2024/2025…. Ratio of TLT to regional … Continue reading →

12 wk ema has crossed 40 wk ema…. Based on 12wk ema or 0.323 per week, 12wk ema is 91.9 by Dec or 91.9+2.5=94.5 by week 3 Dec. Longer-term since last year… SPY also weakening…weakest in 6 months.

The decline from lei highs has been very long. Oil also falling slowly $10-12 per year. The bull market in real estate has run from 2012 to 2025 or 13 years and stocks you could argue have been running since … Continue reading →

Of course, it makes sense that upward pressure has to build before a +10% is possible. After July drop on this chart, another +10% occurs in August.

0.145 by Dec…

Above 0.146-0.147 is official bull….

Home builders take the first hit before SPY. See Last November and December before big drops in March and April. LEN down 6% MoM and -11% from peak price beginning of Sep.