Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

As we all know 2022 was bad for stocks…inflation was rising quickly. AND bad for bonds as rates rose from 0% to 4.x%. And we now know 2023-2025 has been good for stocks. Why? Inflation has been falling for the … Continue reading →

‘Stagflation’ as JP has noted. Note-peak of inflation Jun 2022…stocks bottomed Oct 2022. Then stocks rallied from Oct 2022-Sep 2025 as inflation fell from 9% to 2.4%. Service inflation fell from 8% to 3.5%. BUT now inflation rising the last … Continue reading →

USD weakens again slowly. FXC is a good leading indicator for liquidity and it started drying up in July…

Last inflation was 0.38 (core inflation 0.35). Assuming a mild acceleration and a later deceleration… the YoY below is indicated. As inflation picks up, it will reach 5%+ by next year.

AS inflation surges, growth dies. Recessions are built on inflation and negative growth. As the Fed drops rates, inflation surges killing growth. But IF THEY DONT DROP, GROWTH DIES EVEN FASTER. THEY ARE CAUGHT BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD … Continue reading →

above 200dma and last high in aug…

Case-shiller 4 months straight… AND zillow confirms since March… AND aside ….miles traveled as proxy for declining GDP per capita…

Despite rates being dropped, spy continues to lose upward momentum… 1 and 2 y Treasuries suck away money from SPY and then it hiccups. The last 5 weeks of 1 year Treasuries show money being drawn away from SPY and … Continue reading →