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Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor
Bi-wkly S&P and Oil
based on average daily close price… And all lines point up again 2y Treasury since mid-July… Oil trends down…bi-wkly oil daily close average…
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Multi-unit condo-apt building down 20% (Real Estate Housing Home)
The change is more dramatic…and signal recession
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Payroll growth finally weak (0.97%) < 1% YoY and Empl-Popn breaks to new low
see 2007… Jobs under pressure…new low here Empl-Popn downtrend: -0.4 over last year
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Auto Loan Delinquencies higher than before 2008
See minute 1:20…
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USD trend=Fed cycle not economy
2015 economy was weak (Oil at $10) but jobs strong and USD strong as rates were about to rise. 2013 economy weak but QE so USD down. 2025 Jan econ OK but Fed stopped dropping so USD weakened for 6 … Continue reading
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July Unemployment Rate (UR) up …close to 4.3%
Labor force continues to shrink as well…
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IEF to TECK bullish
2 weeks ago good leading…before spy showed any signs…
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Inverse Correlation = risk off
TLT and SPY are sometimes correlated but that is not considered “risk off”. That would be more like risk ON for example 2021 or Nov-Dec 2022 or Nov-Dec 2023. In 2015, SPY goes down and TLT goes up when RISK … Continue reading
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