Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

The Fed says no more than 2 drops next year 2025. They said the same in 2023 about 2024 BUT had 4 drops. So Fed is still concerned about inflation BUT construction continues to fall and rising unemployment 2025 will … Continue reading →

Probably why ECB drops so aggressively…I would say Europe is 1 year ahead of US. Output started down in Feb but unemployment was delayed for 2Q. PMI not useful as it was too early by 2 years… UK also negative … Continue reading →

Continuing Claims keep push up…

In July 2021, OEX turned bearish and market started to turn bear in Jan 2022. Likewise, OEX turned bearish in October 2024. ABNB continues in bear market. Last year was +50% in December…now -12%… Construction Bear Market 2024-

Since 1991 the economy has worked on loans-construction (as loans are huge now). Many reported the mortgage market collapse in lending 2022 and 2023. BUT that is only one of the dominoes. They never tell you the whole story of … Continue reading →

Based on 4 drops by Fed in 2025 and 8 drops by ECB… This indicates a VERY STRONG USD in 2025.

Clearly it can take 16 years to rebuild debt levels. People forget about debt during that time. The issue of ‘forgetting’ is covered here in this documentary… https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3332308/