Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

The worst is Citibank model at 6.7% unemployment rate. The range for Q1 bank statements is 5-6.7%. And JPM increased the most by $1B. To me this is just the beginning…every quarter forecast gets worse and worse from here on … Continue reading →

Here’s a list of indicators that did not work. after-action report. Many of these indicators are traditional BUT DID NOT WORK… Some may work again given that the 50 year super-cycle bubble is bursting. IGNORING 2Y RULE after 2022. 2 … Continue reading →

What has the last 2-3 years taught us? Don’t listen to perma-bears when risk is ON and vice-versa! While in Risk Off for the next 2 years, it’s OK to listen to perma-bears. However, ONCE RISK ON RESUMES AT END … Continue reading →

And the opposite is true. When there’s risk on, ignore bad numbers! Below indicates that delinquencies are rising faster and faster!!! Unemployment sentiment continues higher to 70% near record! Econ numbers get worse for air travel, airlines, and hotels-lodging… In … Continue reading →

This has been obvious since January…but Teck now has the 40 wkma X the 100 wkma! Teck is official bear now. Clearly the 12 wkma told you at the beginning of every year if it was a RISK on or … Continue reading →

Mr. T has been told by house members he must ‘pay’ for his tax cut extension. It’s actually not a tax cut but a tax cut EXTENSION to keep the rate at 37%. Net stimulus 150B or 0.5% GDP over … Continue reading →

waiting for first open above 12 wkma… Corps having hard time passing on costs..inflation fears massively overblown.

You don’t have to go to 2007-2008 in order to see how far off the Fed can be. Look at this interest rate prediction from March 2021. I saved it then on my hard drive. They predicted rates at 0.75% … Continue reading →

The problem with listening to perma-bears is that they miss important things. For example, McDonalds had 13 Q of record growth 30% ! How can you say economy was bad in 2024! It’s Complete Stupidity! However, as I always say … Continue reading →

The YoY comparison is useful. Normally it drops every year. And in 2007, it accelerated upwards. But now it continues up at 10% and the unemployment rate is now more reasonable at 4.2%… The economy was too strong in 2023 … Continue reading →