Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

VIX needs to drop by last week of Month

The last week it pushes up…

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Inflation and Unemployment Claims (Mo UC)

Notice that UC fell for 3 months and inflation reported higher at 0.2 . BUT NOW Oct is rising rapidly again like May and June.

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Bear Market…long term SPY:VIX ratio

Can see clearly bull-bear transitions…bear started end of Aug…

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Deflationary Pressure keeps building until next March

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1 year Treasury falls rapidly last 10 wks…deflationary

Fed has to catch up big time!

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Still a bear market after 50bps drop

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Mortgage Write downs …1.48T Q2 2008 to Q2 2013 (5y)

1.482 T or -10% of all mortgage debt was written down.. Now outstanding mortgage debt Q2 2024 20348B or 20.348T -10% would be 2.035 T OR 37% more than last time. Wealth lost is about 16X or 32T…

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New Construction Turns Down from August 2023 – Real Estate Housing Home

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JOLTS – job openings falls faster than 2007

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Marcus Aurelius Phase…125y decline (now mid-way)

Resolutions don’t happen in this phase as bread and circus are too strong!

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