Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Inversion That Matters Inversion that matters…crossed 0 in April. This time 10-2y won’t happen as 2y treasury is falling faster than bonds.  Hence, there’s a much bigger run to cash than before which implies liquidity crunches. Once it reaches -1.0 … Continue reading →

See monthly below for 10 years… And vix lines have crossed…base vix now 15 and TLT:oil has pulled back… but oil and spy have some room to upside in early July…

and spy: and oil falls the most in a long time as USD moves up:

  Russell index is a good leading indicator for SPY. And is a non-confirmation of a bull market.

TLT is a buy 4th week of May or Jun 3…   Oil momentum still high… Oil will slow down in May as it has been OB for most of April. OB oil slows down economy for next quarter…. TLT … Continue reading →

The 2 year rates (now 2.33) have been falling since Nov 8 (2.94) showing a slowing growth and inflation. Fed fund rates are now higher than the 2 year rates for first time in 10 years. And the monthly difference … Continue reading →

VIX needs to bottom in 2 months…rise in 3 mo   AND TLT:OIL Risk ON … needs to go sideways

The change in claims is the least in 10 years showing a rapid slowing now.