Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

A burst in Jan and stability in stocks until volatility in SandP causes a new wave of layoffs.

You’ve had the rate rise cycle then the fed pause cycle (vix falling) then the bad economy cycle to begin next 3 months…

The continuing claims monthly change has the same trend as unemployment rate… Payrolls vary too much to predict and aren’t as stable as the unemployment rate. Study was done on unemployment claims 4wkma and found it lacking as well as … Continue reading →

Link changed to end of month gasoline change. This predicted the Jan rise in inflation much better than the average.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=10m6s

https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index This is single family only I believe…so may have to check multi-family. Case-shiller YoY price movement gives same results. Peak was Apr 2006 and bottom was May 2013 or 7.2 years (the often quoted real estate cycle). Current peak … Continue reading →

Despite QE and stimulus …all reflected in XLE ! For TLT, two considerations-

When year over year case shiller turns negative…bear market real estate. When it crosses to positive…back to bull. Real estate is the primary asset of middle class and reflects true state of consumer confidence and economy. Case Shiller YoY

After credit cards started growing again in Jan 2012, real estate picked up 1 year later. And stocks picked up Jan 2013.