Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Employment to Population declines in Feb (YoY) for first time since 2013 and May 2007

Ratio declines for first time (YoY) in over 10 years. Before a recession, last time was May 2007.

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This recession will take longer to play out than previous recessions…expect 3 year bear market.

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A New Dark Age…can’t predict when it will end must burn out naturally in 20-50 years!

We entered a dark age year 2000 or 2015. The internet is the new Gutenberg bible. Points-comments are below-

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Delinquency moves up like 2007

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XLY consumer spending crosses to bear

https://schrts.co/VJnUPhgh

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Payroll Growth Approaches 2% and fell 1.9% last year

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Just released…Credit Card Delinquency rises the most and all loans up YoY

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Insured Unemployment Rate Up YoY Mar 2023

Insured UR last year

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Unemployment Claims breakout to upside (highest in a year) and Growth has dropped to 1%…recession next year

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Credit Card Delinquencies Q1 2023 rising fast (YoY)…canary in the coal mine

First, revisions in employment numbers show trend to negative employment.

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