Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

TLT:SPY ratio turns on Friday……last xover was 1st week October…

Oil will steal all the growth as it did in Sep/Oct before the last bear phase.  Now SPY back to BULL until July when growth stalls again.   Long term VIX lines confirm a new bull phase.. And 3 mo: … Continue reading →

Forecast And Job Cuts Rising: ISM Forecast to cross 50 by Apr-May:

ROC5 now 0.28 and ROC14 is 2.5 OEX has topped also….puts and calls being closed for Mar 15…

Low gas prices feeding into rising core inflation….. YoY inflation strong at 2.1 and will surge next month….as Feb 2018 (0.17) was quite weak.   Unemployment claims to cross 0 soon:   USD returns to uptrend and continues to indicate … Continue reading →

Falling inflation like late 2014 and 2015 indicates weakening growth.  Dec 2016 until Nov 2018 were positive showing strengthening economy and rising markets. And now Dec 2018 / Jan 2019 show a weakening growth despite increasing wage growth.

REAL POSITIVE RATES NOW (xover was 1-2 months ago!): Asset prices fall with positive real rates! Soon 2.6 by March for Fed rate and inflation maximum 2.2 and predicted to fall by the Fed! WITH POSITIVE REAL RATES CASH BECOMES … Continue reading →

  Gross Inflation Falls to 1.9 Core Inflation flat..