Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Core inflation as predicted 2.0+ ! Monthly inflation 0.1755. Table below-

In order to have a bear market, unemployment claims must be rising and delinquencies.  Both are still falling…UC quarterly below…   The last bear market began beginning Q2 2007: The Fed lowered rates for the first time on Aug 1 … Continue reading →

From biohistory part 3. Shipwrecks declined 98%!

Wages are rising as fast as early 2006 upside and 2009 on the downside SO inflation should be sustainable through 2020. Since 2016, it has been above 0.5% most of the time. The dip in late 2014 and 2015 is … Continue reading →

Next month ccpi will rise by 0.12 (average for mar)–0.073 (last mar) or 0.193 to give 2.05 ccpi. We are above 6y trend inflation and over last year.  See Mar, Apr and May last year when inflation was way below … Continue reading →

As ccpi will be 2.0, the SPY run will be complete by May, and TLT x 200dma, TLT is due for a strong pop on the fed rise June. The similar chart is May-Jul 2016. The Fed meeting is Jun … Continue reading →

Double dip is off the table for now. The Friday up day has put an end to a double dip. July 31 is the next candidate for SPY short. By then, SPY should be in an official bear market with … Continue reading →

As inflation rises quickly (as it did with the tax cut in 2011), TLT anticipates by 1 month and starts to pop in the month of 2.0 or after the holidays.  This will be April as CCPI last March 2017 … Continue reading →

Above the most recent CCPI 2.0 events and their 6 digit CCPI numbers. In general a 1.84 becomes 1.80 and 1.95 becomes 2.0. I see a 1.89-1.92 as most likely. Watch Mar 13 in the main text of the release: … Continue reading →