Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Falling inflation like late 2014 and 2015 indicates weakening growth.  Dec 2016 until Nov 2018 were positive showing strengthening economy and rising markets. And now Dec 2018 / Jan 2019 show a weakening growth despite increasing wage growth.

REAL POSITIVE RATES NOW (xover was 1-2 months ago!): Asset prices fall with positive real rates! Soon 2.6 by March for Fed rate and inflation maximum 2.2 and predicted to fall by the Fed! WITH POSITIVE REAL RATES CASH BECOMES … Continue reading →

  Gross Inflation Falls to 1.9 Core Inflation flat..

Now that we have Fed clarity …the USD market sees the end of rate rises and weakening economy. Bullish to SPY! But Buy SPY on 1st GHA at the close.

Black macd x red line…a bullish move for SPY as Fed weakens its stance due to inflation under control in the last 2 months.   Mild uplift to 272 for SPY by Dec 31. And 287-290 by end of Jan … Continue reading →

Inflation can be seen from ROC250 as being tamed nicely.  Oil now moves sideways with upward bias since Powell’s ‘neutral’ speech. Oct and Nov oil were down. +60% was too much in early July and October. Notice when oil comes … Continue reading →

Core inflation is falling for past 3 mo achieving Fed’s objectives… 2015 had rapidly rising inflation as did the beginning of 2018…   And economy strong UC claims great: Jobs plus lower inflation… For November inflation, also down but due … Continue reading →

Already a double dip so no dip at Fed Mtg… LONGER AND DEEPER THAN EXPECTED: 17 RHA bars and no counter rally for 1 week…   VIX HA shows the turn the day before…   AND VIX dots/ohlc shows the … Continue reading →

Oil has broken the 40 wkma….but needs to do more by Nov 9. Oil macd has turned down and previous mini-bears in oil have lasted 5 weeks….2 weeks left. What should the target be 55???   Gas price inflation up … Continue reading →