Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Risk off TLT to Oil on the macd shows momentum now returning to the upside.  The recent momentum down was less than last year. This means risk off will be stronger this year. Oil will stall out and fall in … Continue reading →

The oil macd weekly needs the 12 week (red) X the 26 week (black). It’s approx a 18-24mo cycle.. See below that the USD from (Oct-on) won’t be helping oil to stay up as in 2017. 1.    The USD falling … Continue reading →

Now we know ccpi will be 2.0 in 2018. When in Fed raising mode, CCPI > 2.0 leads to Fed tightening policies. 2016 is a guide with many vix events. As well, now that vix has bottomed, it has no … Continue reading →

Credit cards are the ‘canary in the coal mine’ for the economy and overall delinquencies. Below is the rate of change in delinquencies (an early indicator). It is fairly noisy but is the first loan item to go delinquent. And … Continue reading →

Below is a table showing the VIX 20+ events per year: Note 2017 has had low VIX, low inflation (CCPI), and the year after election in its favor.  It loses 2 next year. Oil usually falls in the year after … Continue reading →

As the crisis onsets, the pullbacks and corrections (ROC14) get bigger as VIX rises: Mar 2007   -5% Jul 2007   -6% Nov 2007  -7% Jan 2008   -12% Oct 2008   -32% And as seen below, VIX crises after holidays: June (sometimes), Oct, … Continue reading →

With CCPI on the rise, is a 1y long term TLT hold policy wise?  CCPI has been falling for 7 months but is now on the rise. Also monthly ccpi now 0.22 or 2.69% annualized. Average ccpi for 2017 has … Continue reading →

Unless VIX hits 20 in December, it will take time to build up risk off conditions (the above 10wkma line needs to move upwards).  BUT VIX has started to move up to a 12 base line launching into a risk … Continue reading →

Vix will rise to a base of 12 next year 15 wkma (week moving average).

Real personal income was increasing at 3-5% between 2005-2008 (a good economy).  Now it’s 1.3%. It’s the weakest value since early 2014. Oil prices fell rapidly in 2014-2015 increasing real income. As oil prices now rise, personal income has been … Continue reading →