Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

As ccpi will be 2.0, the SPY run will be complete by May, and TLT x 200dma, TLT is due for a strong pop on the fed rise June. The similar chart is May-Jul 2016. The Fed meeting is Jun … Continue reading →

Double dip is off the table for now. The Friday up day has put an end to a double dip. July 31 is the next candidate for SPY short. By then, SPY should be in an official bear market with … Continue reading →

As inflation rises quickly (as it did with the tax cut in 2011), TLT anticipates by 1 month and starts to pop in the month of 2.0 or after the holidays.  This will be April as CCPI last March 2017 … Continue reading →

Above the most recent CCPI 2.0 events and their 6 digit CCPI numbers. In general a 1.84 becomes 1.80 and 1.95 becomes 2.0. I see a 1.89-1.92 as most likely. Watch Mar 13 in the main text of the release: … Continue reading →

In Feb 2013, TLT fell rapidly based on an inflation scare and had a brief rally at end of Feb. The following month,Mar, had a CPI day of 2.0 on Mar 15.  Note the opening was the best time to … Continue reading →

Always you need a fundamental driver: Fed Mtg or CPI day.   Watch for -1% down day on SPY after CPI day (Mar 13). Fed first day Mar 20 is also possible.   And watch for the 4dma- dot, the … Continue reading →

We’ve had a ROC -7.5 event…rebound now underway…4dma X 5 days ago last time the run on spy was: Oct 16 bottom..2018 bottom Thu Feb 8 257.50 +6% up Nov 10 was first stop…25d later…now first stop Mar 5 Nov … Continue reading →

As Feb CCPI is stronger than expected, a new strategy is necessary. Below are the last 3 transitions to CCPI 2.0.  When CCPI moves to 2.0, SPY stalls out after 2nd week (Jul 2011, Apr 2013,Dec 2015). Of course, TLT … Continue reading →

The last transition to ccpi 2.0 was Dec 2015 with a Fed rise. TLT then made a rally Jan 4,2016 – Feb 11, 2016. You need USO at the beginning of the trend to get it started. On Jan 4 … Continue reading →

While it will take 42 days to wash through this from the start Jan 30, this is good news: Volatility is finally up since Aug 2015 Events come in waves so the next one is within 4.5 mo Econ and … Continue reading →