Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

With VIX at 37, recovery will be slow.  No point in SPY recovery until middle Mar-3rd week Apr. USO will also confirm at that time…

Vix 21 event happens this week but ROC14 hits -5% by Thu/Fri around 268. This will be the limit as ccpi is not yet 2.0. The fall has been violent/too quick so it will burn itself out quickly. Rebound play … Continue reading →

With both VIX lines rising, a new higher base is forming for VIX for ex. 12.   Employment to Pop falls 5 pts after 2006 and regains 1.5 pts in recent years:   Fed also indicates ccpi to rise as … Continue reading →

When both 15 and 22 wk lines both move up, VIX is moving to a higher base line for ex. 12.

First, car sales/units YoY transition negative for the first time since 2006 (means a 2y countown):   Secondly, while not positive yet the UC Qtrly shows the worst Q4 performance since 2012:

BDI link: http://schrts.co/mhukwd Now that a recession is approaching…BDI can be useful and rail data (somewhat).  Near term Jan shows a greater downturn MACD (-60) than 2017 (-30) , black line (21) than 2017 (150) and ROC (36) than 2017 … Continue reading →

The YoY growth in car units sold by quarter shows decline since Q2 2016… Recession is close when this happens.

VIX base is rising even though SPY has also been rising. VIX 15wkma has crossed the 22 and VIX ROC YoY is also due to X zero. Last Jan 2017 VIX was falling rapidly -50% YoY. But this year its … Continue reading →

Two charts from the talk (1st chart past growth):   And the future growth:   I see a ‘dark age’ ahead. The above chart shows it as well…  

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc170508.htm “We presently estimate that the total return of a passive, conventional portfolio mix of 60% stocks, 30% bonds, and 10% cash will hardly exceed 1% annually over the coming 12-year horizon.” This implies a very rough road for S&P500 … Continue reading →