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Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor
Gas Buddy Turns Down. SPY +13% YTD Jul (+19% YoY)
Have to turn it down before election…. Monthly average gas price below…. 1 month…
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The New Credit +228% since 2020…Private Credit Defaults Rise Q1 (corp cash flows under pressure)
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SPY momentum turns negative…weak Aug
And YoY turns down…4 months ahead of hiccup. Gas up slightly…
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CPI down big BUT YoY still high at 3.5
Will be less neg for July as gas is falling slower… AND CPI YoY still runs too hot…
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SPY continues to lose momentum
weak July …AND VIX still reasonable at 18… 4 month cycle is turning….
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Gas down -12.5% June
3 weeks in…big change from May (quite high). 5 months up… Also …when oil surges, oil money surges into SPY. Hence, big up in SPY occurred April and May.
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SPY loses momentum also (SPY+OIL)
Upside now is limited to +2-3% to mid-July.
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Oil Trends Down…June is the first month with gas and oil down.
Oil trends down for 3 weeks… CPI trends down but still high…with June to be low… SPY down…BUT still +2% for Jun with up pressure from May but also falling momentum.
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Gas Prices May still 1.47SD BUT SPY volatility (mini-correction) leads to lower prices
Based on average prices…. 9.2% means 1.47SD OR 0.25 + 1.47 X 0.15 = 0.47 CPI BUT liquidity dries up with SPY volatility so prices in June negative. AND Gas prices down for 2 weeks! Average Price for May $4.47 … Continue reading
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