Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Volatility in SPY will lead to continued downward pressure on oil and CPI. Previous May did have rising oil BUT SPY was on fire with added liquidity… Let’s say oil falls to $87 (average for Jun) then -15% from May … Continue reading →

Despite record breaking stock rally 2023-2026… The earliest bottom will be 2031 or 8.3y down cycle…

Clearly a bear market now…

So CPI will be 0.2 for May….falling inflation now. BUT earliest drop will be Oct.

When economy weakens, WS rotates to commodities. XOM is in bull market. For the next 5-6 years (of course not in a straight line) : Housing-Construction…down. Commodities are opposite to real-estate/construction. Cars..down Tech struggles but down. Tourism…down And bonds up … Continue reading →

OR bi-wkly change.. Gas more flat in May +2% vs +12% in April

CPI ‘surges’ though…it’s not a straight line. But YoY still high by end of year at 3.2… And 2026 marks rising CPI…and more next year and even more 2028! This means weakening economy.

Based on cpi being 3.1 by Dec… As you can see …economy was benefiting from falling inflation from 2023-2025.

SPY has been useful with Q4 +2.7% and Q1 -6.2% showing a slowing momentum (slowest in 3 years) which leads to CPI surges and recession. However, bonds and CPI surges are the trackers now. You can never win with technicals … Continue reading →