Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

A spreadsheet was created to estimate the end of policy stimulus. Estimating from the fall of M2V in Q2 2006 to Q1 2015 brings a 0 crossing event in 2038 when in theory monetary stimulus will fail. The Wall Street … Continue reading →

Margin debt grows with each cycle…from Lance Roberts- Margin debt grows by Fibonacci levels 38% (approx.) higher each time. From Investopedia- Fibonacci retracements use horizontal lines to indicate areas of support or resistance at the key Fibonacci levels before it … Continue reading →

The Fed may not raise interest rates after all due to weak demand see core PCE price index (lowest levels since 2010).  They may allow ‘gravity’ to take over as monthly SPY MACD indicates a ‘roll over’ in momentum.  The … Continue reading →

As the bear begins in September (below 200dma), SPY will fall 20-30 points and Oil to $25 from Sep 2015-Sep 2016 (there will be a few small rebounds with LOWER highs). SPY will fall another 20 points from Sep 2016-Nov … Continue reading →

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-01/smartest-money-liquidating-stocks-record-pace-theyre-selling-everything-that%E2%80%99s-not-b But while we knew that both “vanilla” institutions and hedge funds were actively selling in the public markets, it was not until last week when we got the most candid glimpse of just how much. We described it last … Continue reading →

Here you can see transitions clearly 2012 before qe 2013 qe 2014 taper 2015 ecb qe before int rate rise   ALSO OIL down less than 1% for the week So the current SPY issue is very minor..   SPY … Continue reading →

We’ve not had inflation issues the last few years BUT yellin has hinted about too much asset inflation.  When does SPY fall?  When the FED policy acts against inflation AND the economy is weak.  At that point the Fed has … Continue reading →

Yes the charts have X and gr,gr,red has occurred BUT the fed has not indicated a policy change.  And greek crisis is a one-off not required to change direction… Notice the rise last july followed by retreat and gain in … Continue reading →

Notice how it fell below the 10 wkma in late March. Here it fell below in mid-April.Good news here is it’s getting cheap and valued thereby driving powerful bounces in Sep/Oct and Dec/Jan. Both lines must X before TLT considered … Continue reading →

OIL has X 40wkma first time in a year, so TLT off for a while! TLT to oil will have to X 10wkma before tlt considered a bull again. These charts also cover TLT X 50dma which is also bullish. … Continue reading →