Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Monthly gas inflation has come off the bottom so this implies a SPY rally soon most likely after Dec 16 Fed Meeting.  This chart is wonderful for predicting rebounds/transitions! This will also mean a pullback in TLT rewinding the spring … Continue reading →

Few realize that rising core inflation causes the Fed to leave an interest rate rise on the table thereby suppressing SPY and causing this oscillation from 189 to 200. Last year it rose again in October and fell in November … Continue reading →

Bad news is the SPY rally appears to be over but will still see by Oct 28.  It only ran for a little over a week indicating a poor spring opportunity. In order to get a $10 run on TLT, … Continue reading →

Bi-wkly gasoline shows some strength since Jun-July.  This indicates caution…wait and see.

To get a good race or run, TLT needs two horses pulling/springs : SPY and Oil.   Oil spring reloading nicely…   SPY GWm indicates SPY is reloading also. SPY retraced near 200dma or just over is a bear market … Continue reading →

Oil has X the 10wkma and been flat for 1 mo so SPY rally should start the next month. Oil leads SPY by 1-1.5 month. The high VIX 40 in August indicated a month settling time is required! VIX has … Continue reading →

The high VIX indicates an even higher VIX and recession next year. VIX is down 10 and SPY is up 3.  Sep-Oct TLT run possible but also Oct-Nov.  The last 2 weeks of Sep will tell. If SPY HA starts … Continue reading →

Recessions occur every 8 years when inflation is low… 1972…73, 75..76 (high inflation), 1980…81 1984 (inflation high so 2nd recession), 1991..92 2000-2001, 2008..2009 2016 This explains why 2012 had no recession.  Even Nassim Taleb mentions that the Fed has been … Continue reading →

For non-leveraged positions, SPY/TLT (0cpn) positions use TLT X 200dma as indicating a policy change: Apr 2009-Apr 2010 QE-SPY                1y Apr 2010-Aug 2010 no QE – TLT        4mo (inflation low at ccpi 1.0 so QE expected shortly) Nov 2010-Apr 2011  … Continue reading →

TLT has X the 200dma and returned to bull mode see also TLT:Oil and TLT:SPY X 10wkma.  As it is Aug, TLT is not played until Sep. when vacation ends and volumes return. TLT should fade in the first 2 … Continue reading →