Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Fed’s Bullard urges taper patience while inflation low http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/01/us-usa-fed-bullard-idUSBRE9A00IF20131101   Inflation too low now so stocks will go sideways/up even but not much…

All taper talk is about cooling hot markets off. Inflation however is not near targets at all therefore QE continues. But the market gets nervous anyhow when they talk of taper. The Fed will signal taper in the next meeting … Continue reading →

It looks like October will be an ‘up’ month for SPY.  RSI is 63.7 with upside to 70.  The OEXd 4dma shows at least a week of run left.  The peak price is the day of the Fed meeting or … Continue reading →

The November setup is looking good as oil continues to fall. Cash now and deploy to SPY at -4.5% and OEXd 4dma turn point or possibly 162-200dma. The first week of November econ numbers wont be good see retail data … Continue reading →

I would be careful of buying SPY at this point due to JNK at top of its BB and WTIC downturn. JNK leads SPY http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNK&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42768446259 $WTIC leads SPY http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56793667557   The most interesting here is how junk bonds lead the … Continue reading →

Despite a possible rally in October after Oct 17/22 debt resolution, it is better to wait for 5-8days after the Fed meeting Oct. 30.  Since June, the top is put in at the Fed meeting and there’s a sell off … Continue reading →

When ROC(20) crosses -4.5% or greater and OEX 4dma crosses on the upside, the SPY rebounds in 1 month. Payrolls will be a non-issue on November 1 as bls is furloughed. By waiting for a -4.5% drop or more in … Continue reading →

“Mr. Spitznagel has gained credibility in the investment world by predicting two market routs in the past decade, first in 2000 and then in 2008…. Mr. Spitznagel said, and when the Federal Reserve stops its quantitative easing program of buying … Continue reading →

If SPY touches the 200dma Nov 4-7, it’s a buy. October is a ‘down’ month. As long as cpi <2.0, a ‘down’ month (Oct) is followed by an ‘up’ month (Nov). Once ccpi 2.0 is achieved, the break will be … Continue reading →

In order for economy to have enough strength for a taper, gas buddy should hit 3.20 and start rising as you can see here in Dec 2011 and Jan 2013: The consumer gets enough extra money in the pocket for … Continue reading →