Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

This chart shows a very nice up/down profile and SPY buy turns in conjunction with bollinger bands and OEXd. 1) OEX weekly early signal but wait to see 2,3 2) BB daily X to bottom and first ‘up’ to see … Continue reading →

  I am watching these two come down and it looks like Jan 8 may be the buy date instead of Dec 19.

When the OEX 4 day moving average (OEX 4dma) turns after falling 8-10 points, look to buy in the 78-82 range.   The fall period has been 2-4 weeks. ROC level coming down. The May-Jun period took 41 days to … Continue reading →

ROC20 is falling. When it falls -1 to -4.5 about the Fed meeting Dec 18, watch for OEX to cross above the 4dma (should be an ‘up’ day).  This worked very well on Oct 9 but I didn’t catch that … Continue reading →

When April inflation was low, May had a very good rally as now rising ROC20 7.5%.  We have now seen the same with Sep inflation and Oct/Nov rally. However, there’s a chance that the minutes / meeting will emphasize possible … Continue reading →

Notice PCE inflation falling and rising fed balance sheet!   Charts below from http://www.oftwominds.com/blognov13/SSA-cash11-13.html Here is money velocity, diving to new lows.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-13/central-banks-risk-asset-bubbles-in-battle-with-deflation-danger.html This is the problem now.  As the economy slows, the asset bubbles are blown bigger and bigger. Despite record QE, disinflation (falling inflation) continues – PCE price index change year over year is falling. See chart on debt driven … Continue reading →

I expect gcpi to fall further so this allows a stronger SPY response off the next low.  Gas buddy is the lowest since 2010 (3.19) so consumers will have plenty to spend.  Once again the Fed doesn’t care about bubbles … Continue reading →

The last 2 Fed minutes (Aug. 21 and Oct. 9) were the times to buy. If Nov. 20 at close SPY is on the bottom of the BBdaily, I say buy. If it is near the top or the middle, … Continue reading →

SPY should still pull back although I am not shorting the market as ccpi and gcpi are too low.  The mutual funds and wall street will be looking to take end of year profits that has been going on for … Continue reading →