Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

TLT has been in bear mode since December same time as gold.  I would wait for it to X 40 wkma to indicate a new bull market.  Although inflation is low and still falling, QE forces are dominating as with … Continue reading →

Sell all SPY and stay cash for now.  TLT buy opportunity will occur when the TLT:SPY X 10wkma. Remember a twist could be implemented to reduce the bond yields. With so much debt the interest rates have to remain low. … Continue reading →

This will put off risk/off mode until perhaps Aug 9.  For now, stay cash with some SPY….

It’s best to stay cash for now (no TLT and no SPY).  The VIX is now rising and Wall Street is worried about QE shutoff.  Even if the Fed indicates on Jun 19 a hold, the market may still drop. … Continue reading →

I advise selling all TLT and wait for next important CPI on July 16 for next decision point. You can buy more SPY today.

If SPY looks like it is closing up today, it is a good time to buy! It has bounced off the BBd.  The past year it always bounces off the BBd or the 50dma. TLT is also a hold as … Continue reading →

Mortgage bond sell-off has hit TLT.  BUT the way to filter this event is with the No. 1 TLT:SPY chart. When it crosses, its a strong buy.  First possibility is mid-July. Economy is still weak so Fed on Jun 19 … Continue reading →

I would say its an early risk off.  With gold falling and Bernanke hints to banks, QE will be turned off/reduced Jun 19. I predict core inflation will be reported on Jun 18 for May at 2.1..a clear QE off … Continue reading →

TLT should be sold as TLT:SPY indicates risk on again. I am in cash now. I suspect that until core inflation rises to 2.1 the spy will grind higher.  Core inflation has dropped to 1.9 and cpi to 1.5.  These … Continue reading →

TLT has turned the corner definitely – 2 weeks ago. The spy is way overbought and cpi is flat to falling see gas buddy. Gold shows future inflation falling rapidly. TLT and bond traders are the smarter ones and sense … Continue reading →