Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

The VIX has turned so buy TLT. VIX is number 1 indicator. SPY MACD weekly has also rolled over. $WTIC rolled over at end of January and leads SPY by about 6 weeks. TLT:$WTIC crossed 2 weeks ago. Gas buddy … Continue reading →

As GDP and CESIG have turned negative as well as recent UI claims report, SPY is a sell.  I have sold and will buy SPY only when it returns to bottom or near bottom of BBd. It has exited OB … Continue reading →

Gas Buddy now finally confirms that the economy is recovering.  The Fed gooses the stocks and corporate/baby boomer spending picks up (tricklism).  http://www.bullandbearwise.com is bullish as well.  Gas buddy should rise to $4 per gallon by April.  However, SPY top … Continue reading →

Once again cash is best.  It is a very uncertain period.  When you can’t see a trend, it is best to stay out…cash (Trend Commandments by Covel). Now of course SP500 is an uptrend.  However, gas buddy is still weak … Continue reading →

The best time to profit is when there is a transition from risk on to off and vice versa.  I anticipate the next transition to risk off in May or June when inflation ticks up to 3.x level and economy … Continue reading →

Trends show: Yen Oversold on short-term basis with a 1 month rally perhaps to end of February/early March.  This is a temporary safe-haven play. Gas Buddy is falling slowly as demand is weak until resolution of debt ceiling. The only … Continue reading →

The yen will fall although may rebound shortly.  The Euro will rise through the year. These two opposing forces will keep the USD in a tight range so SPY, commodities, etc. and TLT will also be in a range say … Continue reading →

There’s no doubt that rail traffic and other indicators show a weak economy.  Later this year the tax increases will also bite. But I like this link from dshort.com on business cycles and his conclusions: If you have studied the … Continue reading →

BBd means Bollinger Band daily             BBw means Bollinger Band weekly The number 1 is VIX and it has turned down.  It is time to go to cash and sell TLT. This is a very uncertain period so cash is best. … Continue reading →

QE is failing as all CB are increasing assets.  The USD is rising against expectations of QE.  Clearly the Fed bought too high.  They should buy low! I recommend TLT highly at this point.  The market (SPY) faces: 1) OB … Continue reading →