Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

From below…. Another concern for the cautionary wing of the BOJ centers on the unusual structure of Japan’s economy. Japan’s jobless rate – at 4 percent – is half that of the United States. But wages remain on the decline, … Continue reading →

Michio Kaku has an interesting take on economic cycles in his book: Physics of the Future c2011 I agree with him that excess capital can be used to inflate bubbles like housing.  What’s missing in the QE debates is that … Continue reading →

  From jugglingdynamite.com: 20 Dec Cory Venable ‏@CoryLVenable While your Broker tells YOU to buy STOCKS, their Dealer BOND holdings climb to record levels…(hypocrisy?) h/t ZR http://t.co/IiVaZ5Ro      

I would sell any SPY at this point and remain in cash with spec capital. A confusing time as TLT:SPY says risk but VIX says no and best stock market indicator also says no….

When CPI is 1.x or 2.x the Fed will add stimulus. When CPI is 3.x, the Fed will signal no intervention. This has occurred in 2010, 2011 and 2012…also 2008! I predict that a weak January economy will lead to … Continue reading →

Low growth can be used by the ‘recovery’ and nearby recession camps to support their claims.  As the economy is on the cusp of growth, the recovery camp argues that the growth will increase.  The recession around the corner camp … Continue reading →

TLT:SPY says risk ON.  Oil is falling due to commodity glut. I would favor moving to SPY with risk capital.  Core position in 0 coupon bonds.

I enjoy this analogy of calculated risk to an austerity slope.  How will the economy grow with austerity? It is a very uncertain time right now. Cash is best except for core position in 0 coupon bonds. See calculated risk: … Continue reading →

As I consider that US and all others are entering ‘Japanization’ also known as balance sheet recession with cash flow, UST bonds are the safest long term investment. Over the years this yields a coupon and capital gains with the … Continue reading →

While early indications are risk ‘on’, I still remain in long bonds (core position) and cash. Seems Q4 GDP will be weak so until a clear trend presents itself risk capital for me is in cash. See this link: http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-Best-Indicator-Ever-Update.php … Continue reading →