Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

TLT to SPY Breakout…First Time in 1y BUT ROC52 still -ve

ROC52wk -18%

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Main Issue: Economy has weakened and the Fed can’t do anything to stop it

This game is all about patience waiting for the right conditions. People don’t want to face the truth…its idiocracy! …No more Oh my! Neg payrolls! panic….drop rates! This is your 2025. But 2026 is bad news for them relying on … Continue reading →

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No Drop in July….Fed Futures…No need for rate rise

Weak Economy + Weak SPY + No Fed = Hiccup (deflationary drop) Negative slope on SPY weakens economy so rate rise not needed. This is an oil and gas matter.

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Gas Prices Still High at End of April

Fed will have to hit the brake to bring inflation down… US average gas prices-

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CPI 2026 est4

Now that oil and gas in decline…

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Monthly Average Gas Surge 22% or 3.6 SD

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SPY 5.5% dip is over (4 weeks)

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SPY will rebound next week BUT it has weakened as well as economy

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Despite being down TLT holds well against SPY

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Last week gas slows monday to monday +6.2%…net 23.4%

Slows from +16.2..and this week much slower +2%

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