Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

CPI will hit 3.7 YoY in April. And of course, the only way to have CPI < 3.0 is no drop in Sep. Many years have 2 runs or 2 hiccups! (to try to bring inflation under control) Hiccups when … Continue reading →

Now that gasoline is in ‘play’…the pre-recession has arrived and WS plays both gasoline and OIL as well as SPY. ‘Reversals’ are now possible especially with gasoline +10% in 1 week. BUT SPY upside is now limited. AND S and … Continue reading →

the last 3 weeks…

Based on the last 3 weeks (12wks at +2.1%) and continuing on current curve..

I have seen this all before. The FED and gov’t have been benefiting from WS for years ..the ‘virtuous’ cycle. Oil and gas have remained low and everyone has been benefiting. Quick summary: SPY loses momentum (YoY) Oil and Gas … Continue reading →

High commodity prices ‘solve’ themselves with increased production and falling demand. Many in US benefit from increased fracking (needs higher prices to justify) which increases new production quickly. Water can be pumped into wells. Oil sands increase production quickly and … Continue reading →

CPI 3.3 YoY Fed to continue on hold..longer.

Now -3.1% after rebound Q2 +11.2% Q3 +6.9% Q4 +2.7% Q1 -6.2% Q2 will be low as well with rebound in Q3 and Q4

As there are no straight lines and markets will oscillate before the big crunch.. When the conditions occur from May- onwards… I could never figure out the riddle of 2007-2008 until I realized that WS switches to milk Oil and … Continue reading →

4 standard deviations means 99.9% percentile 1 SD = 6.27%….Average price $3.64…Feb $2.91 And weekly gas change has leveled…+0.7%