Category Archives: Uncategorized

Bernanke System: Housing Bubble -> Stock Bubble -> Commodity Bubble -> Recession

The new system started with the 2002 printing press speech by Bernanke and the ‘wealth effect’ speech in 2012. Of course, the Fed does not understand the flaws in their new system. So they only ‘react’ to the circumstances never … Continue reading →

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TLT during the last Fed raising cycle

Thanksgiving was Nov 23. First leg November was +9….2nd leg December was +6 ending the week of the Fed. And more in Dec…Christmas week was not worth it.

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As of 2026, Commodities outperform SPY (Commodity Cycle)

If I were WS, which one would I pick?

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Compare UTWO to last Fed raising cycle

And now 2026….

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Gas up more in Sep vs Aug

‘jawboning’ has not worked hence the rate rises….

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Gas Near the Top

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TLT trend starts up…

Strong up signal…

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Bonds more oversold than stocks so likely to rebound first

So next week likely to be up and this week… Bonds like the rate rise….and bad news will be good for them… VIX continues to rise….In May, it was falling.

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Rate Rise and Gas means more ‘squeeze’

With 1 rate increase, chance for another is only 50-50.. And SPY not doing well…. Gas also rising

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VIX starts to move uptrend….Fear increasing (most will be over in 2 months when VIX hits 30 again)

Vix looks the same as end of January. ROC20 now positive after bottoming near 14… VIX can be used in the ‘context’ of other indicators such as bonds being oversold, SPY near highs and Diesel up +58%. Think of it … Continue reading →

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