Category Archives: Uncategorized

Doesn’t look good for bitcoin next year as pressure on bottom 50% increases… AND liquidity starts to dry up. GLD goes sideways when SPY weak and Fed on pause. BUT GLD looks to do at least 20% next year as … Continue reading →

Still a bull market… Compared to same time last year…the coming year not so strong for economy or SPY…

I guess budgets and tariffs are over. Now it’s all about cuts or lack-of.

Despite SPY up (av prices) Aug 1.8%, Sep 2.7% and Oct 2.3% (a very good clip at annualized 27%), Unemployment has risen for 3 months ….. EVENTUALLY, ‘BUBBLENOMICS’ POLICIES FAIL!

90% of the time I don’t believe FED controls long bond market. Money managers do.

Since 1930s, recessions have been inflationary with surges causing a recession. BUT now asset prices are too high so NOW rents and house prices can both go down which was not the case in 2008 recession or others since 1930s. … Continue reading →

4 weeks up for 1 year Treasury. ALSO Q3 SPY +12%. Fed has dropped inflation and unemployment and now is worried about SPY. Return has been too strong. This makes the recession worse than would have been taking longer to … Continue reading →

still above 12 and 40 wkma…both slopes up. Last year same time was a big downward slope. ROC 52 is positive. Push to 92 by 2nd week Dec. TLT to oil bullish since August…