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Recessions are caused by unemployment and that’s all!
And my equivalent indicator: Quarterly Unemployment Claims… And monthly:
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12 50 and 100 dma SPY moving up still but moving up more slowly
OEX 12dma not sideways yet so still more SPY upside…but limited to 305. Weekly macd moves up more slowly…
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SPY 12,50, and 100 dma are pointing up
And TLT some 3-5 weeks away from a buy zone (midOct)…as 12 dma must meet 36dma first
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2y Treasury turns up and June inflation surges over last year
Some new inflation forces have turned the 2 year treasury up. This happens before a major market fall. Core inflation has also turned up in June… And core inflation monthly up quite a bit more than June last year-
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LEI decreased for first time this year…rapid slowing from 2.9% to 0.4%
The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. decreased for the first time this year. Large negative contributions from building permits, the ISM® New Orders Index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted) fueled June’s decline. In the first half of … Continue reading
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Debt Driven Economy Still
Same old…same old…increase of debt over gdp spending…
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Cash anyone?
June was biggest surge in 5 years… MZM is now 16T and SP500 Mkt Cap 24T.
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Compare 2y and 1y Treasury …Record Margin Debt
The 2y treasury is a bit more sensitive and starts down sooner. But both confirm now… Note record margin debts. Real SP500 levels bottom between 1000-1200…
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Credit Flow Investor 