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As expected after 6 months unemployed, delinquency rates move up. Usually loans go delinquent and then LTU (long term unemployed) goes up. For this time unemployed are driving delinquency up. Looks like delinquency has a long way to go up … Continue reading →

Note change to fed policy in Jan 2018 and Sep 2018. Then again in Nov 2019 dips and change happens the next meeting Dec 2019. And now another dip in the TIP…

Through most of 2019 Fed balance sheet was declining….

Delinquencies are now rising on all loans…

See on secondary indicators…percent change over 2 weeks Fed balance sheet peaked April 8 and started ramp up on March 11….

As of Dec 2019, job openings decline by 14% YoY. But from a higher level than 2006, 2 quarters away from reaching 2007 levels…

  And world trade volume shrinking July and Nov 2019 (-1%)… And baltic dry index fell to new recent low. The 40wkma is now pushing down.

And my equivalent indicator: Quarterly Unemployment Claims… And monthly:

  OEX 12dma not sideways yet so still more SPY upside…but limited to 305.   Weekly macd moves up more slowly…