Category Archives: Uncategorized

Some new inflation forces have turned the 2 year treasury up.  This happens before a major market fall. Core inflation has also turned up in June…   And core inflation monthly up quite a bit more than June last year-

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. decreased for the first time this year. Large negative contributions from building permits, the ISM® New Orders Index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted) fueled June’s decline. In the first half of … Continue reading →

Same old…same old…increase of debt over gdp spending…

June was biggest surge in 5 years… MZM is now 16T and SP500 Mkt Cap 24T.

The 2y treasury is a bit more sensitive and starts down sooner. But both confirm now…   Note record margin debts. Real SP500 levels bottom between 1000-1200…

Inversion That Matters Inversion that matters…crossed 0 in April. This time 10-2y won’t happen as 2y treasury is falling faster than bonds.  Hence, there’s a much bigger run to cash than before which implies liquidity crunches. Once it reaches -1.0 … Continue reading →

See monthly below for 10 years… And vix lines have crossed…base vix now 15 and TLT:oil has pulled back… but oil and spy have some room to upside in early July…