Category Archives: Uncategorized

SPY will fall for a few days as a yield spike (Tlt down 3% in 2 days) has occurred due to mini oil shock. The red line for a pullback is 291.  Market is due to open up below this … Continue reading →

ROC5 is a good indicator to show a reversion to the mean effect on a weekly basis. On a monthly basis, the chart shows a strong July / Aug and a weak Sep implying a strong Oct indeed. ROC5 trend … Continue reading →

  And core inflation also dropped… And Sep due for a bigger drop… This is good for SPY in the fall after fed mtg…

The SPY ROC will go down and down until fed mtg 3wks from today. Sep will be a – ROC month. July was a +4 and August a +3 so reversion to mean brings spy to a -.  Also the … Continue reading →

Oil has been outperforming SPY and TLT: I create 2 new links: Oil:SPY Oil:TLT Right now Oil will outperform as SPY will go sideways and TLT goes down… See USO june last year! 30% mo rise rate For comparison: Apr … Continue reading →

Gas has been falling for 2 weeks so Fed will be neutral on this meeting. Notice how gas prices were rising before the Jan Fed Mtg! WKLY GAS TREND However, oil shows a new uptrend so gas may reverse by … Continue reading →

Last year cpi was very low (May especially) so cpi (Jul 12) could go to 2.8 or more for June. Watch for TLT 12dma to have significant downtrend (last 2 weeks of July before Fed Mtg Aug 1). Currently, the … Continue reading →

  Inflation fears…similar to:

Most likely back to 0% and rebounding in mid-June… USD weakness has driven SPY up this week but will slow down next week allowing a SPY retreat after Fed Mtg.