Category Archives: Uncategorized

  And just core: Core inflation grows again in april.. Energy has turned up (fall in Mar is energy related -3.2!) now 1.1 New vehicles drop less Used drop a lot less Shelter jumped 0.1 to 0.3…shelter consistent at 0.3 … Continue reading →

Oil will X back above 40wkma. This is good as a July Xover is better. CCPI fell to 1.9 in April.  This should rise to 2.0 by June fed meeting .  USD is falling a bit in response to ccpi … Continue reading →

Oil has X the 40 wkma. This is fundamental to any -10% correction.  So global liquidity is starting to dry up. The OFC model : Oil has now X 40wkma Fed Rate raises Sep Calendar Sep after holidays With a … Continue reading →

From this chart…no rise Jun….Sep and Dec. Lowest unemployment rate in 10 years means more rate rises… Why is Sep bad for stocks? from http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/septworstmonth.asp: There are several theories which attempt to explain this phenomenon. One particular theory points to … Continue reading →

Trumps losses become Bernie Sanders’ gains. What will a socialist government do to stocks? Flat/sideways for 8-10 years:   But I see the future more like Japan with low growth.  There’s no way you’ll have economic growth like 1950s America. … Continue reading →

Line must start to rise before correction events: Sep-Oct 2014 Jan 2015 August 2015 Jan 2016 Since Mar 2016 it’s been down BUT now is rising setting up conditions for correction Sep-Oct 2017. The risk off stocks line is also … Continue reading →

  OFC model: oil must X 40 wkma first and that occurs in July… The oil 40 wkma is now flat.

When there’s a correction in Sep-Oct, Jan follows: Sep-Oct 2013 followed by Jan-Feb 2014 (small due to QE) Sep-Oct 2014 followed by Jan 2015 (larger but Fed rate 0) Aug 2015 followed by Jan -Feb 2016 (biggest correction yet as … Continue reading →

TLT to SPY 10 week line should show rise