Category Archives: Uncategorized

Tremor 1 (-2 to -4%) underway after Oil X 40 wkma and FPC as predicted! Cycle is now 1 year from Mar 2017 to mid Feb 2018 risk off. Tremor 2 will be Jun-Jul again -2 to 4%. But no … Continue reading →

Just as oil can be used on the downside to ‘see’ the next correction (-10%), it can also be used to jump on the SPY rebound train. Below oil rises rapidly From Feb 16-Mar 1. +$7 in 2 weeks!   … Continue reading →

US Home Ownership Falls 5%…the most in 50 years And UK 9.8%.. These are bad news for real estate and household formation/economic growth.

Recessions occur in election years as market looks for a bailout. Until the election…the staircase up continues. Good depiction here….SPY The issue after the next election and collapse in Sep-Oct 2020 will be how high taxes? Will it kill volatility? … Continue reading →

July will be similar to 2014 in that oil will become a bear market again. BUT as July 2014 had a -2.5% fall, this July will have a similar pullback but no correction. Expect another pullback 2-4% in Apr-May. The … Continue reading →

As discussed below, the macro adjustments for the recent recession are shown.  From an individual level, the chart below explains it better- Of course, we are in the 2-3y lead up to a recession at this time. But this is … Continue reading →

Once oil rolls over the model resumes.  Why oil?  Oil is the global liquidity indicator and also drives inflation. The best time to profit is when the Fed “shakes the tree.” The indicators for the model (OFC) are: Oil 200dma … Continue reading →

  Soon USD rise will cause oil to roll over.  Frexit threats will weaken Euro as it did UKpound.  An oil rollover usually occurs in July: July 2008, July 2011, and July 2014. Relationship oil to SPY ROC14.  See below … Continue reading →

Inflation rises Fed raises rates (2005-Jul 2006) Highly indebted delinquencies start to rise (2006-2008) A breaking point arrives and Fed starts to drop rates RAPIDLY (Sep 2007-Dec 2008) USD falls rapidly (2007-Jul 2008) Oil and commodity prices spike ($70-$150) causing … Continue reading →

2006 had rising rates and inflation as now BUT most of 2006 had risk on.  Therefore any pullback in SPY was very short followed by a rally. Formula is Risk Off + FPC.  But for 2006 it was Risk ON … Continue reading →