Category Archives: Uncategorized

Rate of change in delinquencies is at the same level as early 2006. It should cross 0 this year.  In 2006 PE ratio was much less and the SPY was on a tear (+15%) so it’s only similar in that … Continue reading →

Good Link- Restructuring Boom Business 2017   Estimates of Mortgage Volumes show decline this year Inflation Chart shows rising this year… In 2007, delinquencies started to rise. So far rates are still declining but should show rise next year 2018. … Continue reading →

The best time to profit is when the Fed changes policy and the market reacts to it.  All other times have low returns or are ‘noisy’. Those that are always invested waste too much time and energy for low returns. … Continue reading →

Recession 2001, 2008 and 2018…    

Gas Buddy Rises So Leaning to SPY flat or more likely up Also: The Fed: Fed to hold interest rates while Congress debates stimulus Budget settles by May and by then charts should show risk off. With FPC in June, … Continue reading →

Equation: Risk Off + FPC (Fed Policy Change) + VIX 15+ -0.6%- Market Reaction (correlates with VIX 15+) Unfortunately, Risk off hasn’t occurred in January.  While Gas Buddy has come off, normally you need a build up of risk off … Continue reading →

And Risk On/Off shows very close due to X next week:   and risk on/off stocks: AND the FED doesn’t like this at all (Change in Gas Prices Yr/Yr): Highest change in 5 years!

Gross cpi has surged in a big way from 1.7 to 2.1…hence the ‘3 fed rate rises’ stance this year.  This takes TLT off the table for any short term runs. BUT good news for recession next year.  You need … Continue reading →

The best time to buy TLT is when fed rates are falling (rates need’nt be 0 but decreasing) and  after a spy crash: First happens SPY crash: Then fed drops rates: Then TLT pops after the crash Nov 1-Dec Fed … Continue reading →

This is great news!  As predicted Risk Off arriving fast from a low level!  Looks like inflation is coming off as well. Things change fast these days…hence the need for “react” and not too much prediction (which is for fun … Continue reading →