Category Archives: Uncategorized

The rcp model was the closest…so once again the simplest model works the best… http://acsh.org/news/2016/11/09/election-polls-were-wrong-and-why-rcp-better-nate-silver-10423 ” RealClearPolitics’ Simple Model Is Superior to Nate Silver’s Algorithm That sounds impressive, until one considers that RealClearPolitics (my former employer), nailed 49 states. Their … Continue reading →

Crazy politics is a consequence of a slow growth / debt fueled economy. As debt goes up gdp slows: Debt Denialists Debt Slows Economic Growth FROM LINK ABOVE: “Doom Loop” of cheap financing leading to excessive debt growth followed by … Continue reading →

Trump is unlikely without a market crash and yes Reagan was a joke as well as George W BUT they both had market mayhem and bad economy pushing for them. I believe the odds Hillary 66% and Trump 33%. If … Continue reading →

As there’s no FPC, Hillary will most likely win as the market will not fall significantly. In Dec, Fed will raise rates and market downtrend starts Jan 2. SPY short is the plan on Jan 2.  The  sell point will … Continue reading →

Most likely there will be no FPC (Fed Policy Change) on Sep 21.  Yellin’s comments of a rate rise this year imply a Dec rate rise not Sep. The market will still go down in October due to the election … Continue reading →

As in Oct 2008, liquidity issues will contain the rise of TLT until after the election. This leaves the SPY short strategy for Oct 3 if the Fed increases rates Sep 21.  Sell SPY shorts 2 weeks later on Friday … Continue reading →

Going back to January of this year when there was a FPC on Dec 17…AND TLT is correcting down now so a relative bargain. When the FPC occurs in September, the idea is to: Oct 3 at open buy SPY … Continue reading →

After June FMtg, SPY rebounded quickly as there was no Fed Rate Rise. The July 27 meeting also had no rate rise, so we wait for the next Fed Meeting Sep 21 (cash positions). As ccpi is 2.23, they can’t … Continue reading →

and TLT…buy first green (TLT), green (VIX) and red (SPY) after Fed Mtg Jul 27 this year (Jul 29 the Fri or Aug 1 the Mon). in 2008 similar, Aug 5 was the Fed meeting. Note Aug 7 the bull … Continue reading →

This chart is good as it leads an entry for TLT by 1 month.  It has now crossed below indicating a bear market for a few months. So after a X event, watch for an entry opportunity when Wm turns … Continue reading →