Category Archives: Uncategorized

This chart means recession for sure this year and a major market crash 35%+.  The Fed will have to raise rates again most likely in June meeting which will be the last rate rise for the year before they drop … Continue reading →

The SPY market will stay in a trading range until Jun/July where it gets OS again. TLT will get OB briefly in July.  When it pulls back in July, the buy will take place.  TLT will then rise from Aug … Continue reading →

YoY chart is above. No zero crossing yet BUT a good sign that unemployment insurance claims have leveled and are no longer falling. Month over month chart is below. It’s the longest 3 month period of rising claims in the … Continue reading →

Idea is to play 1st round TLT starting mid-July when TLT RWm and exits. First sell will be Sep FedMtg followed by another buy Oct 31/Nov 1 and sell Dec. Below are ccpi and TLT in 2008. The pattern is … Continue reading →

Inflation rose again … So rate rise next week and TLT may go up $2 next week but performance flat as rate rise will dampen the effect. Rate rise enviornment until ccpi < 2.0: TLT rise/sideways … lackluster SPY down … Continue reading →

The TLT:SPY ratio has surged to a new recent high which was expected.   So sell all TLT on Friday at close.

The end of month is the best time to sell TLT when there’s a good run ($10). The end of month effect is even more pronounced on a TLT good run than a SPY good run. Even SPY pulls back … Continue reading →

AND in 2008, liquidity crunch in Aug and Sep led to higher and higher TLT levels with some big reds along the way.. TLT:SPY ratio looks on track and the ROC for it should hit 10% before some peak is … Continue reading →

TLT volumes are still low as most are still on vacation.  SPY is falling as expected and will continue to fall through January. Oil will resume its fall and TLT will start to rise again at that time. Any month … Continue reading →

Monthly gas shows negative indicating TLT gas / oil part is a go. Most important is the FPC or fed policy change. Fed policy change the best time to profit. One chart for showing change in fed policy is the … Continue reading →