Category Archives: Uncategorized

Not always but as with Fed meetings a change in trend is possible or the stopping of a trend (Feb 20) occurs after the Fed minutes.  3/8 Fed Minutes per year are significant. So as with May 2013, a possible … Continue reading →

Consider TLT entry when 1) After Fed minutes May 20, 2) VIX HA > 15   (closes at 16 for example) 3) SPY is $2 below recent high or $210.  SPY should also be RHA.   Current VIX 12dma… First sign … Continue reading →

Bi-weekly gas St Louis FED shows record surge levels

Gas Buddy 11% rise in 1 month…inflation surging…Since beginning of May rise at 8% rate. MONTHLY rate of change below for gas drives inflation higher Why is inflation rising good? The Fed is sensitive to rapid inflation rises and signals … Continue reading →

VIX fell on Friday and gas buddy keeps rising.   TLT will be a play after jun 18 and vix ha > 15 vix low and falling…don’t buy tlt…wait for jun 17

Yellin announced stocks are too high.  So there’ll be downward pressure on SPY until October-style correction (could be Sep also). I believe the TLT bottom is in, BUT I want to buy Jun 18 (morning of CPI day) as it … Continue reading →

  Good news is world economy weak but inflation will rise with USD falling.  So overall good news to buy TLT cheap before the next run/rebound.  With world economy weak, the rising oil will last a short time perhaps end … Continue reading →

New idea is that ccpi may fall to 1.0 next year about April 2016 and QE is engaged then. For now, a market crash of 15% seems unlikely.  So to engage QE it may not be necessary for the market … Continue reading →

Core inflation rises a bit.  Last year peak was May (reported June). So inflation cycle may end  at end of May with a turn in gas buddy afterwards…   After the Feb rise, hints of interest rate increases leaked out … Continue reading →

VIX down .. no TLT …SPY will run higher but a few dollars at best. Best opportunity for TLT is after gas buddy peaks and the next Fed meeting (Jun 17). Today gas buddy is flat but will need a … Continue reading →