Category Archives: Uncategorized

Looks like SPY will rise for 1 week, retrace, and stabilize before Fed meeting.  Then down again when QE is not forthcoming (Jan 28). QE will not be announced then as: 1) SPY has not corrected 10-15% 2) Core inflation … Continue reading →

for now sell tlt and stay cash   Things may oscillate every 1 -2 weeks but I still believe a re-entry to TLT is possible in a few days! 1) TLT still above 12dma 2) VIX still high at 17-18 … Continue reading →

VIX GHA TLT GHA SPY RHA   so buy TLT melt is coming!!!

Crises evolve over 1 month as from Sep 18 to Oct 16 this year. In 2011 when QE was turned off in June, the crisis started the following month in mid-July and the crisis peak was also 1 month (mid-Aug). … Continue reading →

October 2013 had a crisis last year and another occurred this year. February 2014 had a VIX 21 crisis and I expect again in 2015.  However, October this year was a bigger crisis a VIX 26 vs 21.  With QE … Continue reading →

November will be sideways on SPY with the first day of month down due to profit taking. In Dec, QE will be shutoff but no crisis as SPY can get OB in Dec. There’s no taper or fiscal cliff to … Continue reading →

Sell SPY now. Look to buy TLT if VIX turns GHA! I will look again for VIX HA at 1100 EDT. TLT is now GHA!!!

Sell SPY OCT 31 at close due to gas buddy continuing to fall.  Gas buddy will have to stabilize and start to rise otherwise a VIX 21 crisis could occur as early as December.   Even Oct 22 (Wed) had … Continue reading →

Due to rising volatility 12dma is changed to 4dma until QE starts again in Jan/Feb.   1) GHA exists 2) OEX at 47 has X the 4dma 3) VIX dropped <4dma  at open  

OEX has to turn and is below the 4dma.  Thurs would have to be above the line and then Friday morning would be go. Again if GHA occurs and VIX close to 12dma 19 or so.