Category Archives: Uncategorized

  VIX is now rising so May 2 is a possible SPY buy. Green HA occurs on May 2 with nfp confirmation is the signal. This down event from here until April 30 is due to tapering. ROC- is still … Continue reading →

The St Louis Fed monthly gas change (% change from last year) clearly shows inflation muted and hence why stocks have gone so high and no TLT runs in 2012/2013 (2010 and 2011 had great TLT runs).

Negative liberty is the freedom ‘from’ and positive liberty is freedom ‘to’. Relevant to this is the following excerpt. From the book ‘Myths of Happiness’ : ‘ Because diminishing negative experiences (like the worry associated with debt) brings a three-to … Continue reading →

Rising gas buddy indicates hold cash. After GB (gas buddy) has been falling for 1 mo, that’s a possible buy for SPY if VIX and GHA agree. That’s for a major run/rebound of SPY. After a GB peak, TLT may … Continue reading →

Looks like ROC is still a – A pullback in April should follow with a rebound expected for May 1 or May 2. Two criteria are 1) GHA 0.80+ and 2) VIX < VIX 12dma   Wages are falling behind … Continue reading →

Gas buddy finally rises so there’s a chance to achieve some inflation.   In the past 2 years, TLT:SPY rises when ccpi hits 2.0. However, TLT is technically a bull market as of mid-January which corresponds to the beginning of … Continue reading →

Gas buddy shows sign of life (and some inflation) so SPY and ROC may rise slightly but not a big rise.

ROC has now crossed to – meaning April a down month. So April will be quite a down month.  Look for turn/rebound on May 1-2: 1) GHA 2) VIX falls below 12dma

In addition to ROC20, OEX 4 day moving average is also useful to see a turn.  For now everything sideways..

Looks like based on ROC at +6% that March will not see a pull back but rather April.  So May 1 (open) is the next decision day.  Inflation has risen a bit but ccpi won’t make it to 2.0.  It … Continue reading →