Category Archives: Uncategorized

I would say its an early risk off.  With gold falling and Bernanke hints to banks, QE will be turned off/reduced Jun 19. I predict core inflation will be reported on Jun 18 for May at 2.1..a clear QE off … Continue reading →

TLT should be sold as TLT:SPY indicates risk on again. I am in cash now. I suspect that until core inflation rises to 2.1 the spy will grind higher.  Core inflation has dropped to 1.9 and cpi to 1.5.  These … Continue reading →

TLT has turned the corner definitely – 2 weeks ago. The spy is way overbought and cpi is flat to falling see gas buddy. Gold shows future inflation falling rapidly. TLT and bond traders are the smarter ones and sense … Continue reading →

The VIX has turned so buy TLT. VIX is number 1 indicator. SPY MACD weekly has also rolled over. $WTIC rolled over at end of January and leads SPY by about 6 weeks. TLT:$WTIC crossed 2 weeks ago. Gas buddy … Continue reading →

As GDP and CESIG have turned negative as well as recent UI claims report, SPY is a sell.  I have sold and will buy SPY only when it returns to bottom or near bottom of BBd. It has exited OB … Continue reading →

Gas Buddy now finally confirms that the economy is recovering.  The Fed gooses the stocks and corporate/baby boomer spending picks up (tricklism).  http://www.bullandbearwise.com is bullish as well.  Gas buddy should rise to $4 per gallon by April.  However, SPY top … Continue reading →

Once again cash is best.  It is a very uncertain period.  When you can’t see a trend, it is best to stay out…cash (Trend Commandments by Covel). Now of course SP500 is an uptrend.  However, gas buddy is still weak … Continue reading →

The best time to profit is when there is a transition from risk on to off and vice versa.  I anticipate the next transition to risk off in May or June when inflation ticks up to 3.x level and economy … Continue reading →

Trends show: Yen Oversold on short-term basis with a 1 month rally perhaps to end of February/early March.  This is a temporary safe-haven play. Gas Buddy is falling slowly as demand is weak until resolution of debt ceiling. The only … Continue reading →

The yen will fall although may rebound shortly.  The Euro will rise through the year. These two opposing forces will keep the USD in a tight range so SPY, commodities, etc. and TLT will also be in a range say … Continue reading →